Slums of the Future

Florida Suburbs Struggle With Economic and Social Woes

Peak-oil alarmists have been predicting for several years that rising fuel costs will eventually make large houses and long commutes unaffordable. According to this scenario, American suburbs are destined to become slums.

As the price of gasoline surpassed $4 a gallon last summer, the alarmist scenario became increasingly plausible. Then, in a surprising twist, fuel prices dropped precipitously. But cheaper energy has not prevented many suburbs from falling into crisis. Many suburban homeowners, especially those who owe more to the bank than their homes are worth, have a growing sense of anxiety. Unemployment and foreclosure rates are rising in tandem, with devastating effects in suburban communities from California to Florida.

The "boomburg" is born
In the latest issue of The New Yorker, George Packer describes the recent construction boom in the Fort Myers, Florida, metropolitan area: “Over the past few years, these inland subdivisions, which are sometimes called ‘boomburgs,’ appeared as if overnight. . . . Across flat and empty fields of wire grass, the developers paved suburban streets and called them Old Waverly Court and Rolling Greene Drive. They parceled out lots smaller than a quarter acre and built, with concrete blocks and stucco, look-alike two-story beige and yellow houses; columned archways over the front doors lent an illusion of elegance. The houses sold for two or three hundred thousand dollars to some of the thousand or so people who moved to Florida every day.”

The boomburg collapses
Since the end of 2005, however, the value of these homes has plummeted. According to the February 8 issue of The New York Times, the median home price in the Fort Myers metropolitan area fell from $322,300 in December 2005 to $106,900 in December 2008.

During a recent visit to Fort Myers, President Obama said, “I know Fort Myers had the highest foreclosure rate in the nation last year. I know entire neighborhoods are studded with foreclosure signs, and families across this city feel like they're losing their foothold in the American Dream.”

Residents of Florida’s boomburgs have been startled by the speed of the current economic decline. Packer wrote, “Driving around Florida’s ghost subdivisions, you feel not just that their influence is waning but that they are physically hollowing out. In a place like Lehigh Acres, near Fort Myers, where half the driveways are sprouting weeds, and where garbage piles up in the bushes along the outer streets, it’s already possible to see the slums of the future.”

Don't bite off more than you can chew
Like any fable, the story of the boomburg collapse has many morals. The point of any story depends on the storyteller’s perspective. Some blame homeowners for irresponsible borrowing; some blame greedy speculators; some blame venal bankers.

Advocates for green building will draw their own morals from the story, but I propose the following:
1. Rapid land development in unsustainable.
2. It’s safer to buy a small, inexpensive house than a large, expensive one.
3. In an economic downturn, few people want to live in homes located far from job opportunities.