Comments from HVAC folks
This paper makes the case for oversizing variable capacity heat pumps. Comments?
http://www.aceee.org/files/proceedings/2014/data/papers/1-371.pdf
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That paper has been around for over 5 years now, and isn't a complete picture of the available technology even then, let alone now.
The systems tested were showing some energy use benefit for oversizing by 1.5x oversized for the 1% design load, and that really would be the limit. The modulation range and the average seasonal load have to be considered too, since modulation range is not infinite, and efficiency doesn't increase monotonically with lower output at the lower end of the modulation range.