Predicting the future is cheap. Anyone can do it, and history shows that predictions made by experts are rarely any more accurate than predictions made by your average cranky uncle.
Since any idiot can jump into this swimming pool, it’s clearly my turn to do so. With more chutzpah than data, I hereby present my own housing predictions.
First, a look at trends and predictions that fell flat
We’ll start by examining a few trends and predictions that never blossomed.
The tiny house trend. Some tiny house enthusiasts have trumpeted tiny houses as the wave of the future. My prediction: they aren’t. In fact, in 2018 the average new single family home measured 2,600 square feet. That’s about the same size as it was in 2013 — so, while the trend for ever-bigger houses is starting to level off, there aren’t any signs of a rush toward tiny houses. Obviously, a 2,600 square foot home is still considerably bigger than 2,400 square feet, which was the size of the average new home in 2011.
Almost everyone wants more space than a tiny house provides. The only reason that people in New York and San Francisco put up with their dinky apartments is that larger apartments are ridiculously expensive.
The smart house trend. While it’s true that some Americans love web-enabled electrical appliances, and want to use a phone app to control every device in their home, there are even more Americans who are worried that smart appliances invite hackers (or ex-husbands, or rogue government agents) to invade their lives. Other Americans aren’t happy about the fact that smart appliances will provide new opportunities for marketing companies to monitor their daily routines and monetize the gathered data. I predict that the smart house trend will be a bust.
Cohousing. For some…